Many pundits are scrambling to dig up old Cold War skeletons in the wake of the ongoing crisis in the Caucuses between Russia and Georgia. Indeed, the Bush administration was quick to draw contrasts between the defunct Soviet Union's bullying of its neighbours, Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Afghanistan in 1979 being the starkest examples, and the recent Russian incursion into Georgian territory.
At one point America's ambassador to the UN rebuked Moscow for seeking to repeat past crimes; he was speaking about regime change. Coming from a representative of a country that openly pursued regime change in Iraq and Afghanistan in the past few years, the accusation was ludicrous.
But the analysis of the recent crisis is different and it is the West, this time, which appears to be locked in Cold War mindset. America and its newly acquired friends in what used to be Moscow's sphere of influence were ploughing straight into Russia's backyard, and the provocations had reached their limit.
But the recent conflict is serious enough to test Washington-Moscow relations in the post-Cold War era. This was not the first time that America and its European allies had followed self-serving policies, in spite of the Kremlin's objections.
It happened in Iraq during the first Gulf War, the former Yugoslavia during the Bosnian conflict, Iraq once again in 2003 and more recently when the West recognised the independence of Kosovo. But each case had its specifics and Russia was not always in a position to challenge on-going policies, nor was it always on the right side. What the Russians found difficult to swallow was that there were still being treated as a possible adversary, by Washington and some of their European neighbours, even when a new chapter of cooperation had been launched.
As the EU expanded, welcoming new members and former Moscow allies, Russia, now the largest country on the planet in terms of size, was busy putting its house in order; fighting an unpopular war in Chechnya and maintaining the new federation that had replaced the Soviet Union.
Painful transition
The West was not sure how to deal with the new leadership in Moscow. Under Boris Yeltsin, the Germans and French steered the EU towards opening up to their new neighbour which needed help as it made its painful transition into a free market economy. The Americans felt they could treat Russia just as they would Poland, Romania or Ukraine.
But the arrival of Vladimir Putin on the scene had changed that perception. Here was a former KGB agent, a young and determined man, who was now in charge of dealing with Russia's challenges of poverty, corruption, public mismanagement, a weak military, threat of secession by small republics, and US expansion into old Soviet Union critical sphere. Putin's authoritarian style of government raised objections, but when he left the presidency few months ago to become prime minister, his popularity was at historic heights.
So when Russia responded swiftly and lethally to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's badly calculated adventure in South Ossetia, the West was taken by a surprise. Scenes of Russian tanks rolling into Georgian territories have shaken Tbilisi's Western supporters. The Kremlin's response has been quick, decisive and stunning. In the wake of the Georgian aggression, Moscow did not blink as its adversaries believed it would.
But if this is not the resurgence of Cold War politics, then what is it? There are those who believe that the new Russia, appearing from the shadows of the old Soviet Union, got a raw deal from the West. At one point President George W. Bush praised the then President of Russia Vladimir Putin and said he was a man he could trust. But US politics did not promote trust. The missile shield project, which the US is aggressively pursuing, has alarmed Kremlin hardliners and pumped up nationalistic sentiments.
Expanding Nato membership, to include former Moscow allies, was perceived as a direct challenge of the Russian Federation's geopolitical interests.
The recruitment of Georgia into Nato was a case in point. The West has failed to understand the complex history of Russia and its relations with its neighbours. By doing so it has given Putin, and his successor Demitri Medvedev, the ammunition to redefine Russia's nationalistic perceptions in a way that is not very different from that of the old Soviet Union.
Osama Al Sharif is a veteran journalist based in Jordan.
Monday, 25 August 2008
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